Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AC 0xacca…34bf crypto 701 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,099 (-6%) realized −$1,101 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%379W / 321L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day54.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days−$225
30 days−$679
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +0.8% -8.8% 81% 68% -4.8%
≤30d 191 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 47% -17.1%
≤90d 700 -8.3% -17.0% 54% 45% -15.1%
all 700 -8.3% -17.0% 54% 45% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 45% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 36% -23.2%
15% -32.2% 28% -30.6%
20% -38.9% 24% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1,101
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses379 / 321
Open positions1
Markets (closed)700 / 701
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day54.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 700 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$6 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 04 $14 +$15 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.48 · official $2.48 (match) · 3500 history records