Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:56:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacc8…7d08 weather 177 markets active 97d ago coverage 75d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$162,099 (+44%) realized +$162,099 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate34%61W / 116L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$2,072per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 75d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 52% +$38,678
politics 25% +$10,388
world 12% −$76
other 5% +$4,726
weather 4% +$1,078
sports 1% +$1,919
tech 1% +$655
crypto 0% +$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 177 -1.8% -11.1% 34% 25% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 25% +4.6%
10% -19.6% 23% -5.4%
15% ← realistic here -27.4% 15% -14.5%
20% -34.5% 10% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,116 vs −$90 · ×12.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.56 per $1 lost it wins $6.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$162,099
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses61 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$2,072
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 177 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 24? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cailyn Campbell win the Greater Zion Cup at Black Desert Resort ( Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C or below on January 17? Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Mar 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 6? Mar 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 4? Mar 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Mar 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 7? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Rese Mar 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 4? Mar 24 $87 −$27 -32%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)? Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 7? Mar 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 1? Mar 24 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Mar 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Mar 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 4? Mar 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 11? Mar 24 $96 −$96 -100%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Mar 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 2? Mar 24 $1,092 −$11 -1%
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? Mar 24 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Mar 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 5? Mar 24 $102 −$2 -2%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)? Mar 24 $64 −$30 -46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 5? Mar 24 $249 +$721 +290%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)? Mar 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)? Mar 24 $216 −$63 -29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 2? Mar 24 $293 −$289 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 1? Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on February 1? Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 05 $199 +$151 +76%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $142,623 +$2,366 +2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Feb 20 $88 +$77 +88%
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? Feb 18 $68 +$39 +58%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $410 +$190 +46%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $61,000 +$11,180 +18%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? Feb 17 $3,390 +$350 +10%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of February? Feb 17 $1,002 +$42 +4%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February? Feb 17 $2,320 +$155 +7%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 17 $1,140 −$40 -4%
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Feb 11 $45 +$11 +24%
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 11 $2,161 +$1,928 +89%
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? Feb 07 $210 +$22 +10%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026? Feb 07 $996 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 5? Feb 06 $112 +$7 +7%
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? Feb 06 $242 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe Feb 05 $33 +$7 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Feb 05 $368 −$215 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records