Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacc8…eb83 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 704d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,996 (-4%) realized −$5,996 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,773per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,703
7 days+$2,768
14 days−$1,605
30 days−$1,605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$1,327
sports 19% −$202
politics 11% −$3,960
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +11.1% +0.6% 71% 57% +15.5%
≤30d 9 -6.7% -15.6% 56% 44% -14.1%
≤90d 9 -6.7% -15.6% 56% 44% -14.1%
all 32 +7.8% -2.5% 47% 38% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 38% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 34% -20.9%
15% -20.3% 25% -28.6%
20% -28.1% 16% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$5,180) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,688 vs −$1,812 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

704d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,996
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage704d
Avg bet$4,773
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,362 −$715 -52%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5,180 +$165 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,506 +$1,675 +48%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will New Zealand win on Jun 22 $508 +$610 +120%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,010 +$505 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $546 −$538 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,868 +$1,064 +57%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $4,040 −$4,016 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $929 −$358 -38%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $5,090 −$1,162 -23%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 27 $15,427 −$4,165 -27%
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 29 $6,530 +$468 +7%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $4,402 +$1,546 +35%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $5,310 +$2,276 +43%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 09 $9,984 −$4,679 -47%
76ers vs. Nets Nov 03 $1,000 +$550 +55%
Spurs vs. Suns Nov 03 $1,000 −$686 -69%
Pelicans vs. Thunder Nov 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Bulls vs. Knicks Nov 02 $500 −$500 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $1,000 +$587 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $5,000 +$1,757 +35%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 01 $9,991 −$4,026 -40%
Rangers vs. Oilers Oct 31 $2,662 −$2,662 -100%
Heat vs. Spurs Oct 31 $2,288 +$374 +16%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $36,725 +$8,866 +24%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 30 $10,282 −$284 -3%
Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? Jul 12 $3,336 −$3,336 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? Apr 29 $6,068 +$354 +6%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? Mar 13 $2,807 −$824 -29%
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? Nov 28 $497 +$4,520 +910%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Nov 06 $2,880 −$2,150 -75%
Biden drops out of presidential race? Jul 18 $1,006 −$702 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 31¢ $620 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,362 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $5,346 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $5,180 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $3,500 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND Will New Zealand win on BUY 45¢ $508 28h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $546 36h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $1,010 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,868 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4,040 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $572 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $929 9d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No $1,961 175d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY No $2,966 177d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL No $1,337 178d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $1,797 181d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 12¢ $58 181d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 13¢ $1,041 181d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL No 29¢ $9,926 202d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 36¢ $2,492 203d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 40¢ $3,198 205d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 39¢ $1,458 205d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 37¢ $21 205d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 37¢ $11 205d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 37¢ $37 205d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 37¢ $255 205d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 37¢ $17 205d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL No 26¢ $1,800 205d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 36¢ $5,041 205d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records