Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AC 0xacc7…6708 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$122 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$122
world 3% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +21.6% +10.0% 66% 66% -1.9%
≤30d 32 +21.6% +10.0% 66% 66% -1.9%
≤90d 32 +21.6% +10.0% 66% 66% -1.9%
all 32 +21.6% +10.0% 66% 66% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.0% 66% -1.9%
10% -0.5% 56% -11.3%
15% -10.1% 53% -19.9%
20% -18.9% 50% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$104 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$122
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage13d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 29 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$27 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 29 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $207 +$199 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $29 +$22 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $105 +$329 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $180 +$118 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $103 +$67 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $202 −$192 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$131 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $102 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$23 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$29 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 29 $100 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $29 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $235 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $23 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.30 · official $93.71 · 65 history records