Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacc7…b5ab world 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%17W / 43L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$4
world 27% +$10
politics 21% +$1
sports 12% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 3% −$3
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.8% -13.0% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 27 -0.6% -10.1% 22% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 40 -0.1% -9.7% 28% 5% -9.4%
all 60 -0.0% -9.6% 28% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses17 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage331d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -23%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $101 −$1 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $14 −$1 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $90 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $56 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $92 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $93 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $94 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 +12%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $108 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $121 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $155 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $12 −$1 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $103 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $195 −$3 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $194 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $110 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $167 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $195 +$13 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $15 +$1 +6%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $346 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $60 $0 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $16 $0 -2%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $29 +$4 +14%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $785 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $642 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $706 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $691 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $705 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Jul 31 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jul 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Jul 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 23 $144 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $100 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $101 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $86 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $21 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $102 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $103 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $56 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $56 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $92 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 241 history records