Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:11:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacc6…2455 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-4%) realized −$26 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$18
other 21% $0
politics 12% −$6
crypto 8% −$1
tech 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 50% -5.5%
≤30d 5 -8.7% -17.4% 60% 20% -25.5%
≤90d 10 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 10% -14.6%
all 50 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 4% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 4% -13.5%
10% -21.8% 2% -21.8%
15% -29.3% 2% -29.3%
20% -36.3% 2% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage455d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 67¢ 68¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $3 $0 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $27 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $44 −$20 -45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $3 $0 -17%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $101 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $61 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 20 $7 $0 -3%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $16 −$4 -27%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 17 $7 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $103000 on May 9? May 11 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2000 on May 9? May 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 08 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 08 $5 $0 -3%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 2–9? May 05 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $7 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 15 $8 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will John-Ion Banu-Muscel advance to the Romanian Presidential Electio Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $27 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes $3 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $27 21h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $27 28d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $26 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $44 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $2 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $0 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes $3 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $6 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $6 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $50 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $19 31d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 44¢ $42 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 44¢ $42 31d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $30 33d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 74¢ $15 34d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 74¢ $45 34d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $19 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.09 · official $28.09 (match) · 146 history records