Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacc4…9022 crypto 87 markets active 6h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-14%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate33%29W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -10.2% -18.7% 26% 23% -17.6%
≤30d 87 -22.1% -29.5% 33% 26% -24.6%
≤90d 87 -22.1% -29.5% 33% 26% -24.6%
all 87 -22.1% -29.5% 33% 26% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 26% -24.6%
10% -36.2% 26% -31.8%
15% -42.4% 25% -38.4%
20% -48.1% 22% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses29 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage11d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$16 +1449%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records