Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacc3…9e0b other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$59 (-4%) realized −$58 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%5W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$243
14 days−$276
30 days−$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$28
sports 19% −$71
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -44.1% -49.4% 16% 16% -45.5%
≤30d 22 -42.4% -47.9% 18% 18% -38.9%
≤90d 23 -38.7% -44.5% 22% 22% -13.7%
all 23 -38.7% -44.5% 22% 22% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 22% -13.7%
10% -49.9% 22% -22.0%
15% -54.7% 22% -29.5%
20% -59.1% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$33 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage70d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 +$75 +262%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 +$86 +442%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $499 +$214 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.28 · official $99.28 (match) · 30 history records