Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacc2…e1d3 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 508d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$3
sports 30% +$6
weather 9% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
other 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +28.2% +16.0% 50% 50% -1.4%
≤30d 11 +8.6% -1.7% 45% 45% -19.7%
≤90d 11 +8.6% -1.7% 45% 45% -19.7%
all 43 +1.9% -7.8% 30% 23% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 23% -10.3%
10% -16.6% 21% -18.9%
15% -24.6% 21% -26.7%
20% -32.0% 16% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

508d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage508d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? No 59¢ 70¢ $26 $31 +$5 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$12 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $29 +$13 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$8 +182%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30? Jun 04 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 26? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $27 +$19 +70%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? May 22 $8 +$13 +155%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Dec 27 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $216 −$8 -4%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $209 $0 -0%
Raptors vs. Pacers Nov 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas vs. Georgia Nov 17 $17 +$9 +49%
Sharks vs. Flames Nov 14 $14 +$10 +70%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Nov 13 $27 +$19 +72%
Rockets vs. Spurs Nov 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Wild vs. Hurricanes Nov 07 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 31 $35 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 30 $13 $0 -1%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Aug 30 $22 $0 -2%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Aug 30 $26 −$1 -2%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Aug 24 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 25? Aug 20 $6 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $120K on August 15? Aug 15 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 02 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 4? Aug 01 $15 +$2 +11%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $14 $0 -4%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jul 28 $15 −$1 -6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese Apr 13 $14 $0 -3%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 03 $5 $0 -3%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Mar 31 $9 $0 -3%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Mar 22 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by January 31? Mar 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 -0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Jan 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship? Jan 26 $4 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 59¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 52¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? BUY No 69¢ $29 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $19 19d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on May 26? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $27 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $26 26d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 27d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $206 173d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $206 173d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $208 173d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $216 173d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $204 173d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 173d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $209 173d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $209 173d
Texas vs. Georgia BUY Georgia 67¢ $17 214d
Raptors vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 31¢ $3 215d
Sharks vs. Flames BUY Flames 59¢ $14 217d
Bucks vs. Mavericks BUY Bucks 58¢ $27 220d
Rockets vs. Spurs BUY Rockets 63¢ $19 222d
Wild vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 65¢ $13 223d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 290d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 290d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 68¢ $29 291d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 69¢ $29 291d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.76 · official $30.76 (match) · 95 history records