Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xacbc…7cc3
other · 357 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$31,271 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27,704 · open −$3,678
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$9,360
Realized−$27,704
Unrealized−$3,678
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses97 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$521
Open positions22
Markets (closed)351 / 357
Avg bet$2,265
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%
Chart Positions 22 History 351 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,712
7 days−$9,712
14 days+$2,102
30 days−$115,464
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $1,858 $2,195 +$337 (+18%)
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Yes 36¢ 81¢ $548 $1,248 +$700 (+128%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Yes 33¢ 27¢ $1,224 $990 −$234 (-19%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 0¢ 8¢ $23 $878 +$856 (+3775%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 51¢ 82¢ $489 $783 +$295 (+60%)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Yes 38¢ 72¢ $358 $685 +$327 (+92%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 52¢ 52¢ $594 $595 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $409 $509 +$100 (+24%)
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? Yes 12¢ 17¢ $271 $403 +$132 (+49%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $1,583 $387 −$1,196 (-76%)
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 71¢ 89¢ $282 $354 +$72 (+26%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 44¢ 89¢ $70 $142 +$72 (+104%)
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat? Yes 33¢ 10¢ $279 $88 −$191 (-69%)
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat? No 33¢ 16¢ $84 $39 −$44 (-53%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $319 $25 −$294 (-92%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? No 31¢ 3¢ $100 $9 −$90 (-91%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $27 $7 −$20 (-75%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 0¢ $4,024 $6 −$4,017 (-100%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting? Yes 32¢ 2¢ $77 $6 −$71 (-93%)
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? No 12¢ 0¢ $408 $2 −$406 (-100%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? No 53¢ 0¢ $139 $0 −$139 (-100%)
Will Trump talk to Kim Jong Un in April? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Jun 12 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $667 −$667 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $667 −$667 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$791 +5479%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $667 −$667 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $667 −$667 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $667 −$667 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $667 −$667 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $667 −$667 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 12 $667 −$667 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $636 −$636 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $112,898 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $35,463 −$3,474 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $2,500 +$717 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $4,423 +$2,788 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $47 +$59 +124%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $246 +$308 +126%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $1,623 +$682 +42%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 01 $1,605 +$588 +37%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $2,057 +$1,479 +72%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $11,026 +$4,126 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $2,111 −$2,111 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? May 31 $95 −$91 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $396 +$107 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $685 +$1,735 +253%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 30 $3,045 +$1,915 +63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 30 $2,774 +$2,983 +108%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel? May 25 $2,673 +$3,025 +113%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $5,723 −$1,717 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026? May 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 23 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 23 $587 −$587 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 23 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? May 23 $2,239 −$2,239 -100%
Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 20 May 23 $742 −$742 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? May 23 $784 −$784 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 23 $739 −$739 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? May 23 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? May 23 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 23 $182 −$131 -72%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 23 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? May 23 $83 −$83 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% −$52,823
world 22% +$41,253
politics 18% +$5,206
sports 5% −$8,310
crypto 4% −$3,146
finance 3% +$788
tech 1% −$4,475
economics 0% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 48¢ $181 57m
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 60¢ $183 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $1,917 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $825 1h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14,865 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14,885 9d
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $47 11d
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 44¢ $70 11d
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 43¢ $176 11d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $765 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 0¢ $7 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2,082 12d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in priso BUY Yes 9¢ $28 12d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $95 12d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $2,746 12d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,590 12d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 12d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $3,431 12d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5,753 12d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,717 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 76¢ $4,107 19d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? SELL No 99¢ $12,750 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 73¢ $596 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -94.4% -95.0% 0% 0% -17.2%
≤30d 142 -15.2% -23.3% 20% 20% -36.4%
≤90d 350 +36.0% +23.0% 27% 26% -14.5%
all 351 +41.4% +27.9% 28% 26% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.9% 26% -13.6%
10% +15.7% 25% -21.8%
15% ← realistic here +4.5% 23% -29.4%
20% -5.8% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,360.41 · official $9,360.56 (match) · 3500 history records