Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacbc…f0eb other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$214 (-18%) realized −$273 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$427now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$162
other 43% −$55
sports 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.4% -1.9% 75% 50% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +8.4% -1.9% 75% 50% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -33.4% -39.7% 33% 25% -41.3%
all 12 -33.4% -39.7% 33% 25% -41.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 25% -41.3%
10% -45.5% 25% -46.9%
15% -50.8% 25% -52.0%
20% -55.6% 17% -56.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$49 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$427
Realized−$273
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage88d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 29¢ 41¢ $160 $229 +$69 (+43%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $123 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 22 $69 −$68 -99%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Apr 15 $50 −$34 -68%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 12 $50 −$36 -71%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $100 −$71 -71%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Apr 12 $100 −$50 -50%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30? Apr 08 $50 −$47 -94%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 08 $50 −$36 -72%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $50 +$46 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 1h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $110 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $124 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $72 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $18 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5d
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 8¢ $16 72d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 74d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL Yes 6¢ $29 74d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $50 74d
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 78d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 78d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 78d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 85d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $50 88d
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 24¢ $50 88d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $50 88d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 88d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 88d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 88d
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 88d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 88d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $427.25 · official $427.25 (match) · 119 history records