Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xacbb…5514 world 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate49%39W / 40L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$19
14 days+$22
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$3
other 17% +$17
finance 3% +$2
politics 1% +$5
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 21% -8.4%
≤30d 32 +4.2% -5.7% 47% 19% -9.1%
≤90d 36 +3.6% -6.2% 42% 17% -9.3%
all 79 -1.3% -10.7% 49% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 11% -9.3%
10% -19.2% 8% -18.0%
15% -27.0% 4% -25.9%
20% -34.2% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses39 / 40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage477d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $175 $175 +$0 (+0%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $326 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $37 −$5 -12%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $164 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $107 −$14 -13%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $192 +$1 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $189 +$3 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $16 +$4 +23%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $155 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $128 +$21 +16%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $32 +$10 +31%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $158 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$3 +39%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $157 −$2 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $496 −$1 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $120 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $157 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $455 +$3 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $212 −$4 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $49 +$13 +28%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $154 +$2 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $154 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $188 −$12 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $306 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2,345 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $174 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $11 +$1 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $293 −$9 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $1,003 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $991 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $21 $0 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $3 $0 +3%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? Jul 03 $20 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Cătălin Predoiu? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -84%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +116%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +6%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $125 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 21¢ $33 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $26 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $11 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $11 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $28 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $31 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $52 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $83 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $25 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $54 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $109 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $85 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $79 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $92 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $107 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $12 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $76 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $33 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $181 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.82 · official $175.33 (match) · 316 history records