Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xacb9…2246
sports · 14 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$413 +34%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$381 · open −$71
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$299
Realized+$381
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage190d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 3 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$244
14 days+$159
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $294 $285 −$8 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 20¢ 10¢ $26 $14 −$12 (-48%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 45¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 38¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 37¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) paiN $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 58¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 19¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 +$27 +80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $146 +$230 +157%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $13 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $14 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $19 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 +$14 +365%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 06 $137 +$185 +136%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Dec 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 06 $99 +$40 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 55% +$319
other 45% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $16 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 45¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 63¢ $61 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 34¢ $34 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 18¢ $34 3h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $142 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $44 16h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 17h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $27 17h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $204 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $274 17h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $103 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 80¢ $103 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 34¢ $101 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 39¢ $46 19h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $47 19h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $100 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 63¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $4 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $138 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 67¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY FlyQuest 38¢ $19 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL Monte 100¢ $18 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 21¢ $4 7d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 37¢ $41 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +32.4% +19.8% 50% 50% +97.1%
≤30d 8 +24.3% +12.5% 38% 38% +37.0%
≤90d 8 +24.3% +12.5% 38% 38% +37.0%
all 11 +24.6% +12.7% 45% 45% +53.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.7% 45% +53.4%
10% +2.0% 45% +38.7%
15% -7.9% 45% +25.3%
20% -16.9% 36% +13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.73 · official $298.83 (match) · 37 history records