Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:04:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AC 0xacb7…5f82 other 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+14%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%31W / 30L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$8
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$26
other 43% +$2
crypto 9% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +13.3% +2.5% 39% 39% -4.0%
≤30d 61 +11.4% +0.8% 51% 51% +4.9%
≤90d 61 +11.4% +0.8% 51% 51% +4.9%
all 61 +11.4% +0.8% 51% 51% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 51% +4.9%
10% -8.8% 48% -5.1%
15% -17.6% 48% -14.3%
20% -25.7% 38% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses31 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)61 / 66
History coverage11d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +139%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $11 +$10 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +57%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Greece 1 - 2 Italy? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Greece 2 - 2 Italy? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$12 +589%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -71%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$9 +832%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 +$6 +72%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 +$3 +62%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +118%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 +$2 +109%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +57%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +46%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Greece 2 - 1 Italy? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -91%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $6 +$6 +97%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $2 +$1 +59%
Exact Score: Greece 1 - 1 Italy? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 07 $10 +$4 +44%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $10 +$5 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 58m
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 58m
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 59m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $11 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Switzerland to win the second half? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 4d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 87¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 3 Czechia? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.84 · official $9.84 (match) · 114 history records