Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

AC 0xacb6…56fb other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$3,001 (-95%) realized −$2,994 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$635per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$1,501 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$83

Realized−$2,994

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage6d

Avg bet$635

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$30	$29	−$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$30	$25	−$5 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$8	−$8	-98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$3,073	−$2,993	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$31	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	9¢	$31	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	15¢	$31	1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$8	19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1,307	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	16¢	$995	5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	16¢	$770	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.00 · official $83.00 (match) · 7 history records