Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AC 0xacb5…a739 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$48 (-3%) realized +$16 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$374per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$105
other 15% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -39.4% -45.1% 50% 50% +8.5%
≤30d 2 -39.4% -45.1% 50% 50% +8.5%
≤90d 2 -39.4% -45.1% 50% 50% +8.5%
all 2 -39.4% -45.1% 50% 50% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 50% +8.5%
10% -50.4% 0% -1.9%
15% -55.2% 0% -11.4%
20% -59.6% 0% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$7 · ×17.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.99 per $1 lost it wins $17.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$824
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$374
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 72¢ $666 $652 −$14 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $222 $172 −$50 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $591 +$126 +21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $671 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 41¢ $7 9h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 82¢ $591 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $228 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $824.05 · official $824.05 (match) · 5 history records