Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xacae…7c75
other · 42 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$4 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage273d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 47¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $39 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 29 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 29 $14 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 29 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $2 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $2 $0 +10%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 28 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 22 $31 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 15 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 30% −$1
other 25% $0
politics 21% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 6% −$2
sports 6% $0
economics 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $16 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $35 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $31 8h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $5 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $2 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $34 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $12 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $22 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $13 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $38 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 97¢ $39 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $39 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $39 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $39 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $35 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $35 7d
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 SELL No 25¢ $11 256d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $14 256d
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 257d
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 257d
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL No 97¢ $4 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 7 -0.6% -10.0% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 7 -0.6% -10.0% 29% 0% -10.1%
all 41 -1.0% -10.4% 29% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.33 · official $18.33 (match) · 154 history records