Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xacaa…a7a0 crypto 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%52W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day131.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$700
other 9% −$65
sports 5% +$520
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 39% -15.7%
≤30d 122 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 39% -15.7%
≤90d 122 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 39% -15.7%
all 122 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 39% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 39% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 31% -23.8%
15% -31.7% 25% -31.2%
20% -38.4% 18% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses52 / 70
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage4d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day131.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 71¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $68 −$35 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$35 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $35 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $43 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$7 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $57 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$12 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$8 +22%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +27%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $20 +$20 +100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $46 +$55 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $39 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.51 · official $9.65 (match) · 624 history records