Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xaca6…00e8 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,443 (+13%) realized +$926 · open +$517
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate76%42W / 13L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1,468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$5
sports 39% +$1,949
crypto 7% +$2
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +24.5% +12.6% 100% 33% +54.4%
≤90d 7 +10.6% +0.1% 100% 14% +50.4%
all 55 -2.0% -11.4% 76% 2% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% +5.1%
10% -19.8% 2% -4.9%
15% -27.6% 2% -14.1%
20% -34.7% 2% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +66% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$4 · ×8.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.1 per $1 lost it wins $28.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$2,517
Realized+$926
Unrealized+$517
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses42 / 13
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage544d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 76¢ $2,000 $2,517 +$517 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,005 +$1,468 +73%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? Sep 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? Aug 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 03 $27 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 03 $33 $0 +1%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $5,474 −$5 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $56 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $16 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4250 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Feb 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Feb 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 07 $7 $0 +1%
Will $Trump FDV be $45-50b on Feb 1? Feb 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? Jan 22 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $2,024 1h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,005 22d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $61 24d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 56d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $43 56d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $13 85d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $57 86d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 114d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $59 116d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 143d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $43 143d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $5 176d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $11 176d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $58 176d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $25 204d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $39 204d
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 235d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 235d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 265d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $36 266d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 296d
Will XRP reach $5.00 in August? BUY No 100¢ $53 297d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 327d
Will Solana dip to $120 in July? BUY No 100¢ $26 327d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $39 328d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $27 359d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 99¢ $33 360d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 386d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 387d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,516.67 · official $2,516.67 (match) · 118 history records