Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xaca4…6147 weather 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%138W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$9
weather 40% +$23
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 28 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 65 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 140 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses138 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)140 / 143
History coverage142d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Will Comcast close Warner Bros acquisition? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $164 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on June 21? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 22 $120 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 20? Jun 20 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 20? Jun 20 $51 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on June 18? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 17? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on June 17? Jun 18 $144 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $125 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun Jun 14 $98 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June Jun 13 $126 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $142 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $161 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on May 31? Jun 01 $161 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C or below on May 29? May 30 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 27? May 27 $160 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 26? May 25 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 23? May 23 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 19°C on May 16? May 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 20°C on May 16? May 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 3? May 03 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 29? Apr 29 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 29? Apr 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 28? Apr 27 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 26? Apr 26 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 26? Apr 26 $158 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 22? Apr 25 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 22? Apr 22 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 22? Apr 22 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 20? Apr 20 $155 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 18? Apr 20 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 17? Apr 18 $153 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 16? Apr 16 $149 +$3 +2%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on April 13? Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on April 13? Apr 15 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 10 Apr 11 $346 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $46 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $46 47h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $118 47h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $164 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $16 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $120 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 86°F or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $28 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $15 9d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $96 10d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C or below on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $51 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $14 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $144 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 12d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $38 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $125 14d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $98 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $37 17d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 61°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $126 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $162 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $142 20d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $142 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $161 23d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $161 26d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $161 29d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C or below on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $161 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.30 · official $174.30 (match) · 355 history records