Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xaca3…4af4 crypto 95 markets active 1d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-4%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%65W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$20
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$15
other 5% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 49% -16.0%
≤30d 53 +0.6% -9.0% 74% 55% -15.0%
≤90d 95 -3.7% -12.8% 68% 52% -14.0%
all 95 -3.7% -12.8% 68% 52% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 52% -14.0%
10% -21.2% 27% -22.2%
15% -28.8% 16% -29.8%
20% -35.8% 7% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses65 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage73d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$10 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$1 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$1 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $7 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 278 history records