Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xaca2…52aa world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$33 (+3%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$8
other 24% +$40
politics 18% $0
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -5.0% -14.0% 25% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 8 -5.0% -14.0% 25% 0% -10.7%
all 31 +0.8% -8.8% 32% 6% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 6% -6.6%
10% -17.5% 6% -15.6%
15% -25.5% 3% -23.7%
20% -32.8% 3% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.09 per $1 lost it wins $4.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage308d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 24¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $65 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $2 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $72 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $69 +$2 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $230 −$3 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $63 −$3 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $9 −$3 -36%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Dec 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $14 +$4 +31%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 12 $29 +$36 +127%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Nov 14 $35 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 22 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 21 $4 $0 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $32 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $11 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $22 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $30 8h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 12h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $14 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $3 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $21 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $29 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $4 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $23 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $48 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $25 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $68 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $23 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $41 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $58 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $12 36h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $22 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $48 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $25 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.67 · official $25.62 (match) · 125 history records