Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xaca2…b9a1
sports · 249 markets active 8d ago
0.0score
−$49,928 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47,608 · open −$2,320
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 2 History 247 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$12,166
30 days−$40,438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 30¢ 19¢ $5,966 $3,803 −$2,163 (-36%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $480 $322 −$158 (-33%)
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Spurs 52¢ $5,200 $0 −$5,200 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Yes 35¢ $4,980 $0 −$4,980 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $5,061 −$4,980 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 03 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 03 $572 −$170 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $33 +$32 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $166 −$25 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $526 +$488 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 27 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5 May 27 $3,467 −$3,467 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $7,219 −$7,219 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $4,842 +$11,003 +227%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 111.5 May 26 $23,838 −$23,838 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $684 +$558 +82%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 May 25 $19,843 −$19,843 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $3,326 +$466 +14%
1H Spread: Spurs (-0.5) May 24 $262 −$262 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 24 $684 −$684 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 110.5 May 24 $2,930 −$2,930 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 24 $2,760 +$3,240 +117%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $3,105 +$2,895 +93%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline May 24 $3,418 +$4,582 +134%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5 May 24 $4,811 −$4,811 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $8,539 −$8,539 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 23 $263 +$335 +128%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 May 23 $12,900 +$11,338 +88%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 22 $33 +$32 +96%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $3,133 +$2,892 +92%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 May 22 $7,352 +$7,647 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $2,364 −$1,244 -53%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 22 $3,505 −$1,086 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? May 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 May 21 $2,038 −$2,038 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5 May 21 $3,792 −$3,792 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2,861 −$2,861 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5,067 −$5,067 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $2,025 −$71 -4%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $3,243 +$504 +16%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $5,075 −$5,075 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 106.5 May 20 $5,216 −$5,216 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $3,864 −$3,864 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5 May 19 $3,854 −$3,854 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $4,214 −$4,214 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $6,685 +$7,316 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $4,193 −$421 -10%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $4,428 +$9,179 +207%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $1,582 +$1,418 +90%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 19 $3,760 +$3,446 +92%
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 May 19 $329 −$329 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 89% −$57,216
other 11% +$7,445
world 0% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $1,944 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $2 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $1 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $16 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $103 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $4 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $2 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $1 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $9 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $164 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $11 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $3 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $4 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $3 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $1 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $2,933 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $2,001 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $220 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $125 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $773 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $55 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $87 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $60 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $35 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 81 -8.9% -17.5% 40% 38% -22.5%
≤90d 247 -4.9% -13.9% 45% 43% -15.3%
all 247 -4.9% -13.9% 45% 43% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover71.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 43% -15.3%
10% -22.2% 42% -23.4%
15% ← realistic here -29.7% 41% -30.8%
20% -36.6% 40% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,126.00 · official $4,126.00 (match) · 3500 history records