Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AC 0xaca1…b458 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$39
world 33% $0
politics 15% $0
sports 11% $0
finance 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 29 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 37 +4.3% -5.7% 46% 5% -9.3%
all 45 +48.1% +34.0% 47% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.0% 7% -9.2%
10% +21.2% 4% -17.9%
15% +9.5% 4% -25.8%
20% -1.3% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +99% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.15 per $1 lost it wins $7.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage106d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $87 −$2 -2%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 25 $86 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $96 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $167 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $87 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $87 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $85 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$2 -10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $212 −$2 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $19 −$1 -5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $7 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $89 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $156 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $55 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $327 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $174 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $185 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $277 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $174 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $89 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $79 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $261 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $88 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $172 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $92 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $85 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $94 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $29 +$6 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 27 $68 +$4 +6%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $481 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 14 $349 +$20 +6%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 14 $2,166 +$5 +0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 14 $1,150 +$8 +1%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $1,084 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $1,084 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $86 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $87 3h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $87 6h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $86 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 43h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $96 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $96 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $77 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $77 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $54 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $87 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $87 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $87 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $85 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $20 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $68 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $83 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 194 history records