Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xaca0…0232 crypto 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (582 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$170 · open −$154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%46W / 55L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day582.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (582 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +8.0% -2.3% 46% 42% +2.1%
≤30d 101 +8.0% -2.3% 46% 42% +2.1%
≤90d 101 +8.0% -2.3% 46% 42% +2.1%
all 101 +8.0% -2.3% 46% 42% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover582.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 42% +2.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 35% -7.7%
15% -20.2% 25% -16.6%
20% -28.0% 18% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$28 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,458
Realized+$170
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses46 / 55
Open positions15
Markets (closed)101 / 116
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day582.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum above 1,840 on June 15, 12PM ET? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $40 $420 +$380 (+951%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 25¢ 18¢ $155 $116 −$39 (-25%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 80¢ 81¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Up 30¢ 38¢ $57 $74 +$17 (+29%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 69¢ 66¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 72¢ 92¢ $40 $51 +$11 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 80¢ 64¢ $49 $40 −$9 (-19%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 45¢ 42¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Up 35¢ 46¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 49¢ 34¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-30%)
Ethereum above 1,830 on June 15, 12PM ET? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+104%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 0¢ 36¢ $0 $19 +$19 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Up 31¢ 46¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Down 63¢ 59¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Up 48¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 67¢ 57¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Down 78¢ 62¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Down 0¢ 55¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 38¢ 18¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-51%)
Ethereum above 1,830 on June 15, 12PM ET? No 36¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Ethereum above 1,820 on June 15, 12PM ET? No 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum above 1,840 on June 15, 12PM ET? No 36¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$12 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin above 67,000 on June 15, 12PM ET? Jun 15 $83 +$63 +76%
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 15, 12PM ET? Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $177 −$30 -17%
Bitcoin above 67,200 on June 15, 12PM ET? Jun 15 $100 −$10 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $130 −$28 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$30 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $62 −$40 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $84 −$13 -16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$13 -42%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$27 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$38 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$11 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $81 −$48 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $69 −$24 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$45 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $146 +$24 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $92 −$35 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $142 +$26 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $87 +$44 +51%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $144 −$69 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $92 −$57 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $165 −$97 -59%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $64 −$5 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$22 -35%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $109 −$55 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$19 -31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $133 +$21 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $176 −$25 -14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $199 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $112 +$53 +47%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $114 −$64 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$17 +42%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,457.75 · official $1,596.12 · 692 history records