Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:02:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac9e…7f1c world 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%29W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days−$4
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$31
politics 21% $0
sports 15% −$2
other 14% −$4
economics 4% +$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 28 -2.5% -11.8% 32% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 76 -0.8% -10.2% 36% 0% -9.8%
all 90 -0.7% -10.2% 32% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses29 / 61
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage344d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $134 $134 +$1 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $134 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $383 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $279 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $147 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $251 +$17 +7%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $9 −$3 -32%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $119 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $59 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $439 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $135 −$14 -10%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $135 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $115 −$3 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $164 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $11 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $14 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $152 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $107 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $3 $0 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $179 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $418 −$34 -8%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $137 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $334 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $303 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $204 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $140 +$5 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $137 −$3 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $143 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $94 +$6 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $24 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 18 $70 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $4 $0 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $172 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 02 $3 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $155 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $491 −$3 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $146 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $196 +$1 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $218 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $621 +$2 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $159 +$2 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $158 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $134 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $134 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $134 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $125 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $75 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $59 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $147 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $147 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $147 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $147 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $10 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $2 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $121 39h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $2 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $130 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $132 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $132 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $146 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $146 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $107 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $132 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $134 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $119 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $24 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $9 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $110 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $117 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.78 · official $134.34 (match) · 434 history records