Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xac98…5bc5 finance 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%44W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% +$43
other 22% −$20
sports 16% −$4
finance 14% +$9
economics 9% +$19
culture 7% −$54
crypto 4% +$2
world 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.5% -6.4% 100% 0% -6.4%
≤30d 2 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤90d 4 +21.9% +10.3% 100% 50% -4.5%
all 87 -7.7% -16.5% 51% 34% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 34% -10.5%
10% -24.4% 28% -19.1%
15% -31.7% 22% -26.9%
20% -38.4% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses44 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage597d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Jun 22 $104 +$4 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will CU be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Apr 22 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Apr 22 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? Jan 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik Jan 11 $2 $0 -1%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Hacks be nominated for Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series at the 20 Jan 11 $1 $0 +15%
Timberwolves vs. Wizards Jan 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Israel strike Iraq by January 31? Jan 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US strike Iraq next? Jan 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%? Jan 02 $7 −$3 -37%
Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -92%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 01 $1 +$3 +300%
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Meta say "Algorithm" during earnings call? Dec 25 $2 +$3 +150%
Will Google say "Privacy" during earnings call? Dec 25 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Dell say "PowerEdge / Power Edge" during earnings call? Dec 25 $1 +$4 +354%
Will Meta say "Shutdown / Shut Down" during earnings call? Dec 25 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Palantir say "Shutdown / Shut Down" during earnings call? Dec 25 $2 +$3 +150%
Will Dell say "China" during earnings call? Dec 25 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Meta say "Channel" during earnings call? Dec 25 $3 +$2 +85%
Will Hims say "Peptide" during earnings call? Dec 25 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Google say "Antitrust" during earnings call? Dec 25 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 60% and 70% of the vote in 2025 NYC ma Dec 25 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Starbucks say "Peppermint" during earnings call? Oct 30 $5 $0 +1%
Will Starbucks say "Non Dairy" during earnings call? Oct 30 $5 $0 +9%
Will Starbucks say "Protein" during earnings call? Oct 30 $1 $0 +5%
Will Meta say "Oakley" during earnings call? Oct 30 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Meta say "Ray-Ban" during earnings call? Oct 30 $5 $0 +10%
Will Starbucks say "Smart Queue / SmartQ" during earnings call? Oct 30 $2 +$3 +150%
Will Starbucks say "Promotion" during earnings call? Oct 30 $5 $0 +6%
Will Meta say "Dividend" during earnings call? Oct 30 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Starbucks say "Holiday" during earnings call? Oct 30 $5 $0 +5%
Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference? Oct 30 $4 $0 +11%
Will EA say "Player Engagement" during earnings call? Oct 29 $4 +$1 +28%
Will EA say "Mobile" during earnings call? Oct 29 $7 +$3 +49%
Will EA say "Live Service" during earnings call? Oct 29 $7 +$3 +53%
Will Robinhood say "Football" during earnings call? Oct 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Snowflake say "Open Source" during earnings call? Oct 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Dell say "Dividend" 3+ times during earnings call? Oct 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference? Oct 28 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Roku say "Roku City" during earnings call? Oct 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Roku say "Hour" during earnings call? Oct 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hims say "Collaboration" during earnings call? Oct 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? SELL Yes 99¢ $107 1h
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 1h
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? BUY Yes 95¢ $64 1h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 155d
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 155d
Will the Bills win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 155d
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik SELL Musetti 49¢ $1 162d
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik SELL Bublik 50¢ $1 162d
Bills vs. Jaguars SELL Jaguars 52¢ $1 162d
Bills vs. Jaguars SELL Bills 46¢ $1 162d
Bills vs. Jaguars BUY Jaguars 53¢ $1 162d
Bills vs. Jaguars BUY Bills 48¢ $1 162d
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik BUY Bublik 48¢ $1 162d
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alexander Bublik BUY Musetti 52¢ $1 162d
Will Israel strike Iraq by January 31? BUY Yes $2 162d
Will the US strike Iraq next? BUY Yes $4 162d
Timberwolves vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 21¢ $1 168d
Timberwolves vs. Wizards BUY Timberwolves 80¢ $1 168d
Will Hacks be nominated for Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series at the 20 BUY Yes 87¢ $1 169d
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 171d
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 172d
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 172d
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 172d
Will VVD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? SELL No $0 172d
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 172d
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.6%? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 172d
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be 4.5%? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 172d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY Yes $1 177d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 25¢ $1 179d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 195 history records