Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac97…0c75 sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate51%42W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$231
7 days−$322
14 days−$510
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$256
other 17% +$64
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +21.8% +10.2% 62% 31% -15.9%
≤30d 83 +5.1% -4.9% 51% 33% -9.9%
≤90d 83 +5.1% -4.9% 51% 33% -9.9%
all 83 +5.1% -4.9% 51% 33% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 33% -9.9%
10% -14.0% 18% -18.6%
15% -22.3% 11% -26.4%
20% -30.0% 7% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses42 / 41
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage28d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $98 −$4 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $110 +$14 +13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $199 +$42 +21%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $66 +$3 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $186 +$35 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 +$1 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$3 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $237 +$11 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $143 +$5 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$1 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $217 +$3 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $173 −$339 -196%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $166 −$34 -21%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $168 −$15 -9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $430 −$42 -10%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $12 +$3 +24%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $205 −$172 -84%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $122 −$24 -20%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $38 −$7 -19%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $1 $0 +23%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 +$12 +12%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $121 +$25 +21%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $634 −$139 -22%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $1 $0 -9%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 4.5 May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Clube do Remo win on 2026-05-24? May 31 $39 −$39 -100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5 May 31 $2 +$2 +68%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5 May 31 $103 +$322 +314%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $254 +$102 +40%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 May 30 $131 +$20 +15%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 −$1 -8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $48 +$3 +6%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $39 −$3 -9%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $100 −$29 -29%
Will Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque end in a draw? May 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 2.5 May 26 $89 +$53 +60%
Coritiba FBC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 3.5 May 25 $102 −$2 -2%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 2.5 May 25 $70 $0 +0%
Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF Cruz Azul: O/U 1.5 May 25 $68 $0 +0%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 1.5 May 24 $86 −$21 -24%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $99 −$12 -12%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5 May 24 $46 +$14 +31%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 May 24 $129 +$68 +53%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $75 +$1 +1%
Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5 May 24 $34 +$9 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 78¢ $94 59m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $98 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 44¢ $21 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 44¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $16 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $76 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $24 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $2 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $94 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 61¢ $99 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 61¢ $100 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 58¢ $143 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 39¢ $99 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $43 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $3 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $4 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $46 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 47¢ $14 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 48¢ $5 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $20 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $8 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $5 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $2 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 55¢ $109 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 44¢ $5 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 44¢ $5 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $55 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $51 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $75 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $69 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 398 history records