Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac91…a893 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$6
other 34% +$13
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
politics 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
culture 2% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.6% -9.0% 22% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 19 +0.4% -9.2% 32% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +0.4% -9.2% 32% 0% -9.1%
all 42 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 5% -8.6%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.72 per $1 lost it wins $19.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage308d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $56 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 81¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $57 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $70 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $34 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $121 +$3 +2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $56 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $56 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $106 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $64 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $53 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 22 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $71 +$12 +17%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $151 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $126 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Nov 18 $29 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Nov 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 14 $6 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $6 −$1 -14%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 23 $42 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by October 31? Oct 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $4 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $35 +$2 +4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $36 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 21 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $25 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $57 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $21 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $35 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $10 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $38 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $9 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $3 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $53 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 38h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 44h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $42 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $54 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $62 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.67 · official $57.67 (match) · 197 history records