Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:00:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac90…b484 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 48% $0
other 27% $0
world 17% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -25.5% -32.6% 0% 0% -26.6%
≤30d 3 -25.5% -32.6% 0% 0% -26.6%
≤90d 3 -25.5% -32.6% 0% 0% -26.6%
all 3 -25.5% -32.6% 0% 0% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 0% -26.6%
10% -39.1% 0% -33.7%
15% -45.0% 0% -40.1%
20% -50.4% 0% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)3 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 84¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? No 16¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+53%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? No 65¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 82¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.26 · official $47.26 (match) · 15 history records