Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AC
0xac8f…fedd
crypto · 581 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,602 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,555 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$85
Realized−$1,555
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses163 / 407
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions14
Markets (closed)570 / 581
History coverage58d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day53.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 14 History 570 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$564
14 days+$640
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $27 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $14 $22 +$8 (+56%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $8 $17 +$8 (+100%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Yes 16¢ 31¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+94%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $32 $2 −$30 (-93%)
Tucker Carlson federally charged? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+29%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-65%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 12, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $124 +$89 +72%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -49%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $78 −$20 -26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$6 -78%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 13 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$11 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3 +$11 +344%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $40 +$15 +36%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 13 $21 −$13 -62%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 13 $82 −$57 -70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $85 −$27 -31%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $28 −$6 -22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $109 −$32 -30%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $25 −$7 -29%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 12 $154 −$48 -31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $412 +$229 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $60 +$14 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $20 −$15 -74%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $17 −$9 -50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $130 −$25 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$5 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$16 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +75%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $161 −$55 -34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 11 $14 −$7 -52%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$3 -15%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $180 −$103 -57%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 11 $408 +$66 +16%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? Jun 11 $100 −$20 -20%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $312 +$65 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 62% −$316
other 17% −$845
crypto 13% −$170
sports 3% −$225
finance 2% +$138
politics 1% −$108
culture 0% −$20
tech 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $19 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2h
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $40 6h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 22¢ $3 16h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $5 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 64¢ $5 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 16h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $5 17h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -10.7% -19.2% 26% 21% -3.2%
≤30d 454 -8.8% -17.4% 29% 23% -12.6%
≤90d 570 -9.0% -17.7% 29% 23% -17.3%
all 570 -9.0% -17.7% 29% 23% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 23% -17.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 19% -25.2%
15% -32.8% 15% -32.4%
20% -39.4% 12% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.62 · official $84.52 (match) · 3500 history records