Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xac8b…272d politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% $0
other 29% $0
crypto 12% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 17 -0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage116d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $86 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $88 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 09 $88 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $88 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $88 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 08 $87 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $87 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $86 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $86 21h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $86 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $86 16d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $86 17d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $86 19d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $86 20d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 28d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $87 33d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $87 34d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $87 40d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $87 40d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $87 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6 45d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $81 45d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $88 68d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $88 69d
Netanyahu out by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $88 71d
Netanyahu out by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $88 72d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $88 76d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $88 76d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 83d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 83d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $88 96d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 96d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 97d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 97d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records