Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xac8b…7d2b crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$34 (+9%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate75%18W / 6L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$17
sports 26% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +14.4% +3.5% 75% 71% +7.3%
≤30d 24 +14.4% +3.5% 75% 71% +7.3%
≤90d 24 +14.4% +3.5% 75% 71% +7.3%
all 24 +14.4% +3.5% 75% 71% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.5% 71% +7.3%
10% ← realistic here -6.4% 50% -3.0%
15% -15.4% 38% -12.3%
20% -23.7% 25% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses18 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $61 +$34 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$14 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $44 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $30 +$15 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $7 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $94 45m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records