Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:56:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

AC 0xac8b…4145 crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip

Net edge-67%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$810per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$2,046now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$3

14 days−$11

30 days−$7

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-65.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-33.2%	-39.6%	67%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	17	-52.8%	-57.3%	47%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	21	-61.8%	-65.5%	38%	0%	-9.7%
all	21	-61.8%	-65.5%	38%	0%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-65.5%	0%	-9.7%
10%	-68.8%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-71.8%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-74.6%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -62% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,063) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -50% → late -73% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.58 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage

Net worth$2,046

Realized−$22

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage37d

Avg bet$810

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 23?	No	100¢	100¢	$2,040	$2,041	+$1 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 20?	Jun 21	$2,037	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	Jun 20	$2,033	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	Jun 18	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14?	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12?	Jun 13	$6	−$6	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10?	Jun 10	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8?	Jun 09	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7?	Jun 07	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 4?	Jun 05	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 3?	Jun 04	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29?	May 30	$2,086	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29?	May 29	$2,083	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 28?	May 29	$2,078	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	May 28	$2,075	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 27?	May 28	$2,071	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27?	May 27	$2,063	+$6	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25?	May 25	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 23?	May 24	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 21?	May 22	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 19?	May 19	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 17?	May 17	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 23?	BUY No	100¢	$2,040	1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 20?	BUY No	100¢	$2,037	2d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	BUY No	100¢	$2,033	3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	5d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 12?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 8?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	16d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 4?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 4?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	18d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 3?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	19d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	23d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29?	BUY No	100¢	$2,086	24d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 29?	BUY No	100¢	$2,083	25d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 28?	BUY No	100¢	$2,078	25d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 28?	BUY No	100¢	$2,075	26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 27?	BUY No	100¢	$2,071	26d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27?	BUY No	100¢	$2,063	27d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	29d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 23?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	30d
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 on May 21?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	32d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 19?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	35d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 17?	BUY No	0¢	$4	37d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,046.21 · official $2,046.21 (match) · 32 history records