Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:38:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac88…44ad other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$22 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% +$50
weather 32% +$11
world 19% −$23
politics 14% −$6
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -46.1% -51.2% 27% 23% -4.8%
≤30d 26 -46.1% -51.2% 27% 23% -4.8%
≤90d 26 -46.1% -51.2% 27% 23% -4.8%
all 26 -46.1% -51.2% 27% 23% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.2% 23% -4.8%
10% -55.9% 12% -13.9%
15% -60.1% 8% -22.3%
20% -64.0% 4% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 85% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $105 $119 +$14 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $62 +$24 +40%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$26 +70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $28 −$16 -56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +12%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 17 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -85%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +13%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 34¢ $109 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL No 95¢ $23 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $62 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $36 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No $12 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No $2 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $22 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $19 12h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL Yes 86¢ $19 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $9 12h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 72¢ $10 12h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY Yes 88¢ $19 21h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL No $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No $1 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 72¢ $10 29h
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 29h
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 75¢ $10 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $20 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $2 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.12 · official $119.12 (match) · 50 history records