Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AC 0xac87…b8df weather 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%59W / 4L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$20
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.7% -13.8% 94% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 59 -2.8% -12.0% 93% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 63 -2.6% -11.8% 94% 0% -9.0%
all 63 -2.6% -11.8% 94% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -9.0%
10% -20.3% 0% -17.7%
15% -28.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses59 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage81d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $134 $138 +$5 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 15 $509 −$30 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $229 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $297 +$22 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $111 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $419 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Jun 13 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $672 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $329 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $449 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $527 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $726 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 09 $189 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 7? Jun 08 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? Jun 07 $203 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 6? Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6? Jun 07 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 6? Jun 07 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C or below on June 6 Jun 07 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 07 $212 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $347 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $24 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $336 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 6? Jun 05 $592 −$22 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $757 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 4? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 5? Jun 04 $253 −$5 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $449 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $134 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 85¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 90¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 92¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 92¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 92¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 92¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 92¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju SELL No 93¢ $392 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $166 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $509 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $55 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 75¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 76¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 77¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 63¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 57¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.01 · official $152.22 (match) · 236 history records