Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac84…52d7 sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%42W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$23
other 33% +$32
crypto 1% −$1
economics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +13.8% +3.0% 77% 68% +2.0%
≤30d 24 +11.2% +0.6% 75% 62% +1.5%
≤90d 64 +9.1% -1.3% 66% 52% -9.1%
all 64 +9.1% -1.3% 66% 52% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 52% -9.1%
10% -10.8% 38% -17.8%
15% -19.4% 27% -25.8%
20% -27.3% 20% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$19 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses42 / 22
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage78d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $70 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $6 −$5 -85%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $67 +$9 +13%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 +$23 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $13 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $41 −$24 -58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$3 +21%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$4 +22%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$6 +83%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $24 +$6 +26%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $7 +$3 +41%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$8 +70%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +22%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 $0 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$8 +70%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 02 $4 −$2 -42%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $3 +$1 +38%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $31 −$11 -34%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $7 +$7 +101%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 27 $8 −$1 -13%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $46 −$17 -37%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Gujarat Titans Apr 26 $23 +$3 +11%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 25 $25 −$2 -8%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $313 −$179 -57%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 24 $201 +$6 +3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $196 +$6 +3%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $225 +$29 +13%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $136 +$32 +23%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $99 +$37 +38%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 21 $50 +$9 +18%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals - Who win Apr 21 $45 −$2 -3%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Mumbai Indians Apr 20 $92 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 19 $83 +$9 +11%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $25 −$1 -4%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 16 $21 +$19 +92%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $193 −$93 -48%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL No 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 83¢ $6 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $70 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 87¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 88¢ $65 22h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL No 100¢ $12 24h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY No 81¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $10 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $11 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $10 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 93¢ $2 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 94¢ $5 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $5 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $13 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $7 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $6 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 63¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 52¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 44¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.77 · official $9.77 (match) · 194 history records