Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac83…ec4c other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,167 (-68%) realized −$866 · open −$301
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$25
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$297
other 23% −$48
sports 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -34.3% -40.5% 31% 31% -17.1%
≤30d 20 -27.3% -34.2% 35% 35% -20.7%
≤90d 20 -27.3% -34.2% 35% 35% -20.7%
all 20 -27.3% -34.2% 35% 35% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 35% -20.7%
10% -40.5% 30% -28.3%
15% -46.3% 30% -35.2%
20% -51.5% 15% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$866
Unrealized−$301
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)20 / 28
History coverage14d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 58¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? Yes 73¢ 68¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30? Yes 15¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 30¢ $295 $9 −$285 (-97%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$10 +188%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$17 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$33 +162%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 38¢ $29 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes $4 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 76¢ $108 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.87 · official $114.87 (match) · 54 history records