Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac77…ab31 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% $0
other 32% $0
tech 9% $0
sports 9% −$2
crypto 9% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage172d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $85 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $87 −$2 -2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $87 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $87 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $88 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $88 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $177 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 19 $177 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $178 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 10 $178 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $178 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $178 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in January 2026? Jan 29 $171 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $173 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 02 $173 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $85 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 15h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $85 18d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $85 21d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $85 25d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $85 25d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $85 33d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $87 33d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 36d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 37d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 41d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 42d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $87 43d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $87 44d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $88 62d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 63d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 63d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $88 64d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $88 65d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $88 66d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $88 67d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $177 81d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $177 81d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $177 89d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $178 90d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $178 93d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $87 93d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $5 93d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $0 93d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $35 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records