Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AC 0xac75…1319 sports 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$275,578 (+39%) realized +$272,348 · open +$3,230
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%88W / 82L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,859per market
Trades / day54.7pace
Fees−$8,865est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$58,593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$56,839
other 15% −$22,714
crypto 0% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +23.2% +11.4% 61% 61% +20.9%
≤30d 138 +3.5% -6.4% 52% 52% -2.9%
≤90d 170 +14.3% +3.5% 52% 52% -5.3%
all 170 +14.3% +3.5% 52% 52% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.5% 52% -5.3%
10% -6.4% 51% -14.4%
15% ← realistic here -15.5% 47% -22.6%
20% -23.8% 44% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$5,200) neutral
Persistence
early +20% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,686 vs −$3,579 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$58,593
Realized+$272,348
Unrealized+$3,230
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses88 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$8,865
Open positions11
Markets (closed)170 / 181
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$3,859
Trades / day54.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $13,400 $14,500 +$1,100 (+8%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 56¢ 55¢ $11,200 $10,900 −$300 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $8,500 $10,125 +$1,625 (+19%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 55¢ $5,100 $5,450 +$350 (+7%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5,100 $5,250 +$150 (+3%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 29¢ 34¢ $3,805 $4,461 +$656 (+17%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 40¢ 38¢ $4,000 $3,850 −$150 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3,270 $3,075 −$195 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 65¢ 74¢ $394 $452 +$58 (+15%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Over 56¢ 57¢ $344 $355 +$11 (+3%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes $250 $175 −$75 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $5,129 +$4,871 +95%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 17 $705 −$705 -100%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $426 +$220 +52%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $5,021 −$5,021 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16,000 +$4,000 +25%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $13 +$16 +129%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cobolli/Shelton vs Pavlasek/Vavassori Jun 16 $286 −$286 -100%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $452 −$452 -100%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $527 +$271 +52%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $333 −$333 -100%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $6,656 +$5,175 +78%
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 16 $68 +$40 +59%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $3,300 −$3,300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,600 +$6,400 +178%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2,392 −$2,392 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $4,231 +$7,807 +184%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $6,376 +$3,745 +59%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $18,576 +$10,150 +55%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $380 +$267 +70%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $5,900 +$4,100 +70%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5,100 +$4,900 +96%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $176 −$176 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 14 $1,096 −$1,096 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5,500 −$5,500 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $195 +$434 +222%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $30,038 +$10,960 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $3,200 +$6,800 +212%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $355 −$355 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4,400 +$5,600 +127%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $124 −$124 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,997 −$1,997 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,700 −$3,700 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $3,700 −$3,700 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,609 −$3,609 -100%
Game Handicap: HRTS (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $6,006 −$6,006 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $777 +$518 +67%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1,986 +$3,014 +152%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $5,000 +$5,000 +100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $990 +$2,309 +233%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4,400 +$5,600 +127%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $4,800 +$5,200 +108%
Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $94 −$94 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $0 $0 +92%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $178 +$164 +92%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $947 +$840 +89%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $537 +$219 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $348 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $5,100 15h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $58 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $5 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $5 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $2 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $10 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $102 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $31 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1,148 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1,148 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $150 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $51 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $51 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $91 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $6 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $104 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $158 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $33 17h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 51¢ $1,973 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $16,000 18h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Sachia Vickery 33¢ $10 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Sachia Vickery 33¢ $3 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Sachia Vickery 33¢ $2 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Sachia Vickery 33¢ $7 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Sachia Vickery 33¢ $2 20h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Sachia Vickery 33¢ $2 21h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Sachia Vickery 33¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58,592.70 · official $58,592.70 (match) · 3500 history records