Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac75…4fdc other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$3
sports 22% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +7.6% -2.7% 36% 36% -10.1%
≤30d 11 +7.6% -2.7% 36% 36% -10.1%
≤90d 11 +7.6% -2.7% 36% 36% -10.1%
all 11 +7.6% -2.7% 36% 36% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 36% -10.1%
10% -12.0% 36% -18.7%
15% -20.5% 36% -26.5%
20% -28.3% 36% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +441%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $2 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 34h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 34h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $1 34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 34h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.24 · official $18.24 (match) · 22 history records