Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AC 0xac71…44b4 other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$14
politics 20% −$4
sports 4% −$8
tech 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -0.3% -9.8% 11% 7% -9.5%
all 104 -3.1% -12.4% 10% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 6% -9.7%
10% -20.8% 6% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 5% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 94
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage97d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $314 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $340 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $414 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 16 $314 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $293 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $157 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $154 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $145 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $151 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $147 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $735 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $250 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $307 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $146 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 01 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $154 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $146 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $144 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $148 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $155 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $157 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $294 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $318 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $301 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $313 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $149 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $163 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $264 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $273 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $154 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 10 $152 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 18h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $6 21h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 6d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 8d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 12d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 21d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 29d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 30d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 30d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 30d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 30d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 31d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $57 34d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $31 35d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $31 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.43 · official $163.43 (match) · 308 history records