Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:53:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac6f…cf53 crypto 324 markets active 2h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%301W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$9
sports 39% −$40
other 13% +$21
culture 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% +$3
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 85 +0.4% -9.2% 98% 1% -9.4%
all 323 -0.6% -10.0% 93% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses301 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)323 / 324
History coverage201d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 18? Jun 18 $152 $0 +0%
Will "Song Sung Blue" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 15? Jun 15 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 13? Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 13? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will "Poor Things" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top global Netflix movie th Jun 09 $122 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 09 $8 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on June 7? Jun 07 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on June 7? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 2? Jun 02 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 1? Jun 01 $135 $0 +0%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? May 29 $51 $0 +0%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? May 29 $43 $0 +0%
Will "Potential - sombr" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? May 29 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on May 27? May 27 $136 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 22? May 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 22? May 22 $59 $0 +0%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 22 $7 $0 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 21 $133 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 19? May 19 $141 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 17? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.00 on May 17? May 17 $122 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will "DAISIES - Justin Bieber" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 14? May 14 $124 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on May 10? May 10 $130 $0 +0%
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $15 $0 -1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 8? May 08 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 5? May 06 $73 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on May 5? May 06 $76 $0 +0%
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $149 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will FK Zorya Luhansk win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 28? Apr 28 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on April 28? Apr 28 $97 $0 +0%
Will "Dracula - JENNIE Remix - Tame Impala & JENNIE" be the #1 song on Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on April 25? Apr 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on April 25? Apr 25 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on April 23? Apr 24 $140 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Ignacio Buse vs Adrian Mannarino Apr 22 $140 $0 +0%
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $135 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $152 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $128 4d
Will "Song Sung Blue" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $5 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 9d
Will "The Murder of Rachel Nickell" be the top global Netflix movie th BUY No 100¢ $122 11d
Will "Poor Things" be the top global Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $23 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $8 11d
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $119 13d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $34 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $123 17d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $135 18d
Will "Potential - sombr" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY No 100¢ $53 21d
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY No 100¢ $43 21d
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY No 100¢ $51 21d
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $4 24d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $136 24d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $122 25d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 25d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 25d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $149 25d
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on BUY No 100¢ $20 28d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $65 28d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $59 28d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $7 28d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Atlanta Braves 100¢ $133 29d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $7 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.78 · official $52.78 (match) · 747 history records