Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AC 0xac6e…43d8 politics 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$13
politics 40% −$15
sports 7% +$28
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 3% -9.7%
all 111 +0.5% -9.1% 6% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×14.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage115d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $70 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $39 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 25 $199 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $177 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $223 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $247 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $251 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $185 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $259 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $456 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $186 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $510 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $341 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $198 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 05 $262 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $195 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $260 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $181 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $263 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $202 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 29 $253 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $242 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $214 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $244 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $214 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $188 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $266 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 2h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 4d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 4d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $41 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $41 5d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $30 9d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $30 9d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 10d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 11d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $29 11d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 13d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 13d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 14d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 19d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 20d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 20d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 20d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $206 22d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $206 24d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $262 24d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $262 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $199 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 326 history records