Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac6b…0fc3 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+1%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$312
7 days+$45
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$137
other 13% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.2% -17.9% 60% 60% -5.8%
≤30d 30 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 43% -7.7%
≤90d 30 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 43% -7.7%
all 30 -12.5% -20.8% 50% 43% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 43% -7.7%
10% -28.4% 33% -16.5%
15% -35.3% 17% -24.6%
20% -41.7% 7% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$40 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage13d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $207 +$187 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $146 +$38 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $143 +$44 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $207 −$100 -48%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $160 −$47 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $159 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $339 −$124 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 07 $103 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 07 $105 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $306 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 04 $239 +$67 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $151 +$87 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 04 $181 +$29 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 04 $203 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 04 $260 −$29 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 04 $52 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $104 −$23 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 04 $52 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $129 +$57 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $394 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $146 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $186 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $145 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $131 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $220 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $113 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15 BUY 17¢ $201 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $32 10d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $32 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $42 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $173 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $215 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $166 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $142 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $121 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records