Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:54:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac6a…2ed3 world 268 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,830 (+10%) realized +$6,564 · open +$266
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate82%168W / 37L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day64.5pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$7,517now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days+$781
14 days+$815
30 days+$2,977
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1,084
politics 24% +$2,600
other 17% +$158
sports 9% +$669
economics 3% $0
tech 2% −$94
crypto 1% +$27
culture 0% −$12
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -8.0% -16.7% 72% 28% -2.9%
≤30d 147 -3.7% -12.9% 78% 32% -0.7%
≤90d 205 +1.1% -8.5% 82% 30% -1.9%
all 205 +1.1% -8.5% 82% 30% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 30% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 10% -11.3%
15% -25.3% 5% -19.9%
20% -32.6% 4% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$38 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.98 per $1 lost it wins $3.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$7,517
Realized+$6,564
Unrealized+$266
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses168 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions72
Markets (closed)205 / 268
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$248
Trades / day64.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 49¢ 54¢ $1,396 $1,538 +$142 (+10%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? No 93¢ 94¢ $671 $675 +$4 (+1%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 84¢ 87¢ $584 $604 +$20 (+3%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 72¢ 77¢ $540 $576 +$36 (+7%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $351 $373 +$22 (+6%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 88¢ 94¢ $306 $324 +$18 (+6%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $276 $289 +$14 (+5%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $228 $251 +$22 (+10%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 76¢ 68¢ $271 $241 −$30 (-11%)
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $209 $232 +$23 (+11%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 72¢ 79¢ $203 $223 +$20 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $214 $222 +$8 (+4%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 73¢ 67¢ $226 $207 −$18 (-8%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? No 78¢ 83¢ $188 $199 +$11 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $188 $189 +$1 (+1%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $175 $172 −$3 (-1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 64¢ 54¢ $147 $122 −$25 (-17%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 78¢ 83¢ $115 $122 +$7 (+7%)
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? No 93¢ 100¢ $103 $111 +$8 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 83¢ 90¢ $80 $87 +$7 (+9%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $66 $68 +$1 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 47¢ 81¢ $32 $55 +$23 (+72%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $47 $47 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -85%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -18%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 17 $95 −$84 -88%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $16 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $61 +$4 +6%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $104 +$1 +1%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $468 +$6 +1%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $24 $0 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $128 +$9 +7%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $108 +$10 +9%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $92 −$83 -90%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $35 +$19 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $117 +$8 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $77 −$15 -20%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 14 $11 +$2 +19%
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $0 $0 -50%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 14 $11 +$4 +42%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -88%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $366 +$15 +4%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Jun 14 $519 +$118 +23%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 14 $1,230 +$45 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $31 +$7 +22%
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? Jun 14 $216 +$3 +1%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $230 +$7 +3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,447 +$163 +11%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $854 +$181 +21%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Break Single-Game Finals Blocks Record? Jun 14 $12 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $74 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $167 +$8 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $44 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $92 +$9 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $57 +$15 +26%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$2 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $21 +$3 +14%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $23 +$3 +11%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $105 −$8 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $89 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $374 1h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $89 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 82¢ $59 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 2h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $21 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $2 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $12 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 92¢ $5 4h
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 4h
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6h
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 6h
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6h
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 6h
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 65¢ $3 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 11h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 65¢ $3 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $66 14h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 14h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $3 15h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $5 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 15h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,517.43 · official $7,515.42 (match) · 3500 history records