Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

AC 0xac69…3c46 other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$104 (-1%) realized −$104 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate63%17W / 10L

Whale WR57%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$354per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Fees−$104est.

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$161

7 days−$198

14 days−$196

30 days−$196

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-15.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-5.5%	-14.5%	64%	0%	-11.4%
≤30d	25	-4.5%	-13.6%	64%	0%	-11.4%
≤90d	27	-6.1%	-15.0%	63%	0%	-11.6%
all	27	-6.1%	-15.0%	63%	0%	-11.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.0%	0%	-11.6%
10%	-23.2%	0%	-20.1%
15%	-30.6%	0%	-27.8%
20%	-37.4%	0%	-34.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -3% → late -9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$38 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.43 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$104

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)63%

Wins / losses17 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)57%

Est. fees paid−$104

Open positions0

Markets (closed)27 / 27

History coverage88d

Avg bet$354

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 27 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$304	+$11	+4%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 21	$304	−$154	-50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1,209	−$29	-2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$979	+$76	+8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$106	−$98	-93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$200	+$7	+4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1,440	+$24	+2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5	Jun 20	$223	$0	-0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5	Jun 20	$265	+$3	+1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	−$3	-3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$200	+$7	+4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$338	$0	-0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$224	+$3	+1%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5	Jun 18	$541	+$3	+0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$401	+$6	+2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$944	−$65	-7%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$250	+$2	+1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$250	+$5	+2%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$506	−$6	-1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$500	+$5	+1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$52	+$3	+6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$31	+$2	+8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$20	$0	-0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$39	+$2	+6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$34	$0	+1%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18?	May 18	$45	−$25	-56%
Will Chaiany Andrade win Big Brother Brasil 26?	Apr 12	$44	+$2	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	39¢	$106	1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	36¢	$102	1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	36¢	$105	1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	36¢	$50	1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	36¢	$3	1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	36¢	$9	1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	36¢	$2	1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	36¢	$9	1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	36¢	$28	1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	36¢	$2	1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	34¢	$100	1m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	35¢	$102	1m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL No	46¢	$151	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	50¢	$102	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	48¢	$56	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	48¢	$45	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY No	91¢	$101	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY No	91¢	$101	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY No	91¢	$101	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	12¢	$167	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	13¢	$103	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	16¢	$103	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	40¢	$199	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	39¢	$100	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	40¢	$67	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	40¢	$33	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	41¢	$196	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	58¢	$9	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	41¢	$3	2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	41¢	$54	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 374 history records