Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AC 0xac68…f1fc weather 429 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40,454 (-5%) realized −$40,635 · open +$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%224W / 190L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,771per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$4,272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$348
7 days+$335
14 days+$850
30 days+$1,469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$7,970
politics 12% −$47
finance 10% −$13,357
weather 5% +$134
sports 5% −$18,892
other 1% +$55
tech 0% +$85
economics 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +43.5% +29.8% 64% 62% -4.0%
≤30d 112 +24.7% +12.8% 67% 62% -2.6%
≤90d 383 +1.5% -8.2% 51% 34% -21.6%
all 414 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 33% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 33% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 27% -22.5%
15% -25.0% 23% -30.0%
20% -32.3% 18% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$272 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$4,272
Realized−$40,635
Unrealized+$181
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses224 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions15
Markets (closed)414 / 429
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,771
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 80¢ 85¢ $928 $984 +$56 (+6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $930 $920 −$10 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $552 $567 +$15 (+3%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 78¢ 99¢ $405 $514 +$109 (+27%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 90¢ $470 $452 −$18 (-4%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 86¢ 76¢ $342 $303 −$39 (-11%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 23¢ 48¢ $46 $95 +$49 (+107%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 56¢ $84 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 61¢ 62¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $31 $60 +$29 (+96%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 45¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $40 $28 −$12 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $62 +$138 +223%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $87 +$113 +129%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $26 +$74 +291%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $27 +$73 +270%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $31 +$29 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $82 +$18 +21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $8 +$92 +1150%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $15 +$85 +567%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $80 +$40 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $39 −$38 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $70 +$30 +44%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $375 −$375 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $236 +$54 +23%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $135 +$32 +24%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $146 +$154 +106%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $85 +$65 +77%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $189 −$189 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $221 +$29 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $194 +$56 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $93 +$37 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $119 +$41 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $78 +$22 +29%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$32 +109%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $780 +$17 +2%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 −$31 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $63 −$62 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $133 +$67 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $37 +$63 +170%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $139 +$61 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $96 +$50 +52%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $31 +$45 +146%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $64 +$36 +57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $63 +$37 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $68 +$32 +47%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $342 +$95 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $192 −$192 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $104 +$76 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 36m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $85 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $66 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $49 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $309 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $600 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $39 3h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 38¢ $39 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 8¢ $8 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $15 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $26 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $12 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,271.99 · official $4,279.05 (match) · 2593 history records