Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AC 0xac65…cfe6 sports 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 494d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$669 (+1%) realized +$819 · open −$150
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%102W / 64L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$749est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$652
7 days−$503
14 days+$1,827
30 days+$3,922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$522
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +17.5% +6.3% 67% 67% -23.7%
≤30d 121 +11.6% +1.0% 64% 64% -0.7%
≤90d 155 +7.0% -3.1% 62% 62% -7.0%
all 166 +5.5% -4.6% 61% 61% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 61% -8.6%
10% -13.7% 61% -17.3%
15% -22.0% 61% -25.3%
20% -29.7% 45% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$367 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$3,442
Realized+$819
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses102 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$749
Open positions8
Markets (closed)166 / 174
History coverage494d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 71¢ 66¢ $2,080 $1,948 −$132 (-6%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $730 $730 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 64¢ 60¢ $320 $298 −$22 (-7%)
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) Allan Nascimento 62¢ 64¢ $189 $193 +$4 (+2%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds No 51¢ 51¢ $161 $162 +$1 (+1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners No 54¢ 54¢ $83 $82 −$1 (-1%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 61¢ 60¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 60¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $273 +$156 +57%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $275 +$368 +134%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 16 $172 +$128 +74%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $383 +$131 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $274 +$167 +61%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 14 $195 −$193 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 14 $978 −$967 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $486 −$480 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $193 +$187 +97%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 10 $237 +$99 +42%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 10 $336 −$331 -99%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 10 $475 +$229 +48%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 10 $151 +$131 +87%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 09 $63 −$62 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $223 −$220 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $124 −$123 -99%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 09 $404 −$400 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Lo Jun 09 $182 −$179 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 09 $379 +$167 +44%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $170 +$130 +76%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $456 +$362 +79%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $253 +$134 +53%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $53 +$74 +140%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 08 $381 +$189 +50%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $568 +$489 +86%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 07 $454 +$203 +45%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $384 +$230 +60%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 07 $488 +$273 +56%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $405 +$233 +57%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 07 $128 +$120 +94%
O/U 3.5 Rounds Jun 07 $597 +$379 +63%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $84 +$65 +78%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $405 −$400 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 06 $695 +$309 +44%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $294 +$259 +88%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $471 +$193 +41%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 06 $474 +$199 +42%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston Jun 05 $155 −$153 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $243 +$164 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 05 $808 −$802 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 05 $284 −$280 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 05 $76 −$75 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 05 $67 −$66 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Chicago Jun 05 $56 +$64 +114%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 04 $120 −$119 -99%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $354 +$206 +58%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 04 $618 +$424 +69%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 04 $161 +$153 +95%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $339 +$172 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $17 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin BUY No 51¢ $163 1h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY No 54¢ $84 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 63¢ $273 12h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 57¢ $172 12h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 60¢ $12 12h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 42¢ $275 12h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies BUY No 58¢ $195 3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $960 3d
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 62¢ $191 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $486 5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 64¢ $323 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 50¢ $193 7d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S BUY No 54¢ $336 7d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 56¢ $63 7d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v BUY No 53¢ $151 7d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 63¢ $18 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $223 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 64¢ $124 7d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 67¢ $404 7d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 67¢ $475 7d
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 70¢ $237 7d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Lo BUY No 52¢ $182 7d
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 50¢ $40 8d
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 3.5 BUY No 41¢ $53 8d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 65¢ $253 9d
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 69¢ $379 9d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 55¢ $456 9d
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 BUY No 56¢ $170 9d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $568 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,442.33 · official $3,442.46 (match) · 289 history records