Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AC 0xac64…cca0 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$313 (+38%) realized +$299 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +60.9% +45.6% 75% 75% +46.4%
≤30d 4 +60.9% +45.6% 75% 75% +46.4%
≤90d 4 +60.9% +45.6% 75% 75% +46.4%
all 4 +60.9% +45.6% 75% 75% +46.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.6% 75% +46.4%
10% +31.7% 75% +32.4%
15% +18.9% 75% +19.6%
20% +7.3% 75% +7.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$100 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.51 per $1 lost it wins $3.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$299
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 47¢ 54¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $306 −$100 -33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$182 +178%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $102 +$106 +104%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.83 · official $118.09 · 15 history records